Thursday, August 26, 2010

Who's taking home the trophy?

This years men’s US Open singles event promise’s to be exciting as ever. A number of players have had a good summer series, and will be confident of progressing into the second week of the year’s last major.

Let’s take a look at the draw for the top eight seeded players, and some of the interesting opponents they may face:
  1. Rafael Nadal has had a US summer series slightly below the world's #1 incredibly high standards. He has spoken of his problems with his backhand, and still find’s the fast Harcourt surface troubling. However, as long as Nadal is in the tournament he seems to only get better, and he has been handed a favorable draw. His first two rounds will provide no problems, and he will look to gain confidence with his game during these matches. His third round he will probably face German Philipp Kolschreiber who has given Nadal problems before. Kolschreiber took a set off the Spaniard in Toronto and will provide a stern test. However, one would expect Nadal to get through and probably encounter big hitting Croatian Ivan Ljubicic in the last 16. Nadal, according to seeding is due to meet fellow Spaniard and close friend Fernando Verdasco in the quarterfinals. However, Verdasco’s form hasn’t been great of late, so I believe he will more likely face Rejuvenated David Nalbandian, or Spanish grinder David Ferrer before a mouth watering Semi Final showdown with Andy Murray.
     
  2. Roger Federer is the "in form" player of the summer. He leads the US series points race, and looks primed for an assault at his sixth US Open. He has been dealt a very nice draw. The world’s #2  faces former world number one, Lleyton Hewitt in the third round. Hewitt will provide a tough test with his fighting spirit. However, Federer has dominated Hewitt in the latter stages of their careers, and Hewitt’s troubled hip still doesn’t look 100%. Federer should cruise through to a quarterfinal match up with big hitting Swede Robin Soderling. Soderling famously ended the Swiss star’s six year grand slam semi final run when he defeated Federer in Paris. However, Federer’s record against Soderling is fantastic, and on current form Federer is playing much better, and will like his chances. The fact that Federer avoids a semi final showdown with either Andy Murray or Rafael Nadal means he should find himself playing for the title on the second Sunday.
3.  Novak Djokovic hasn’t impressed me since his Australian Open win in 2008. He is the world #3 player because he is fantastic at beating the players he should beat. He doesn’t beat the best in big matches, and continues to complain of sickness. His third round will probably be Argentine journeyman Juan Monaco. Although Djokovic is the heavy favorite, Monaco is good at making his opponents play many balls. If the weather is hot, this may trouble Djokovic. His fourth round will be either Mardy Fish or Marcos Baghdatis. Both players will like their chances, and will be a very tough match. If Djokovic can survive this far he will most likely play American Andy Roddick in the quarterfinals. Roddick is coming off a straight set victory over the Serb in Cincinnati, and I like Roddick to do the same again, and progress through to the semi Finals.

4.  Andy Murray’s form has been good. He looks more comfortable on the fast hard court, and away from the mania that surrounds his every move in Britain. His draw is challenging but on his current form he will like his chances. I expect him to cruise past the Swiss 25th seed Stanislas Wawrinka in the third round, before a fourth round showdown with either Sam Querrey or Nicolas Almagro. Querrey beat Murray in a tough three set final in Los Angeles. However, this was Murray’s first tournament of the US season and his form is much better now. He will have a very tough quarterfinal with seventh seeded Czech Thomas Berdych. Berdych has a huge game and is capable of hitting the scot off the court like he did at Roland Garros. This will be a very interesting match, but I expect Murray to progress through to the semi finals.

5.  Robin Soderling has been in career best form. He once again made the French Open Final, and lost in the quarter finals of Wimbledon, both times to eventual champion Rafael Nadal. He is at a career best ranking of #5 but has never played very well on the hard court surface. Looking at his draw I expect him to make it though to the quarterfinals before losing to Roger Federer. His third round will likely be the dangerous Fernando Gonzalez. Gonzalez has a lethal forehand and is known for playing well in grand slam events. However, the latter half of his year has been plagued by injury, so I don’t think he has played enough matches to trouble Soderling. The Swede will then likely face Marin Cilic in the fourth round. Cilic made the semi final of the Australian Open but hasn’t played well of late. In any case he is young, exceptionally talented, and will be a good test for Soderling.

6. Nikolay Davydenko is one of the most consistent players over the last decade, and is very unlucky to have never won a grand slam. However 2010 he has been plagued by injury and still doesn’t look at his destructive best. His second round against talented Frenchman Richard Gasquet will be tough, but I still expect him to win. But due to a lack of play I think he will lose in the fourth round to 10th seeded Andy Roddick.

7. Thomas Berdych looks set for a quarterfinal showdown with Andy Murray. He has a few tricky matches before hand, but with the form he has shown of late these opponents shouldn’t be an issue. His first round is against veteran Frenchman Michael Llodra. LLodra is a serve volleying left hander. He has a lot of experience, and will be a tough first round match up. His third round I think will be unseeded Julien  Benneteau. Benneteau held match points against Nadal last week in Cincinnati, and may be in career best form. However, it’s hard to see the French Open and Wimbledon semi finalist losing before the quarterfinals.

8. Fernando Verdasco is seeded eighth but has not had a good US summer so far. He is very much a confidence player, who at his best can beat anyone in the world. However, he is down on confidence and has really been struggling with his backhand and serve. Verdasco is the wildcard in my eyes, however on his current form I don’t see him getting past Argentine David Nalbandian in the third round.
Of the player’s outside the top eight, I think Andy Roddick is the most likely to progress to the Semi Final. The 10th seeded American will like his chances to defeat the two seeds above him, Nikolay Davydenko, and Novak Djokovic.  Even though I think Roddick is capable of making a semi final, I believe the US Open champion will be down to three players. Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, and Andy Murray, but we will have to wait to find out.

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